Election Polls

[Sundance2020]

POLL: No Good Leader for PM,


37% of people support no political party and believe there is no suitable leader for the role of prime minister, according to a new poll by the National Institute of Development Administration. The NIDA poll showed that current PM Prayut Chan-o-cha led the pack of potential candidates, but only 16% of people supported him as their choice for the next prime minister.

2,504 people were surveyed by telephone between December 15 and December 21 for the NIDA poll, with those interviewed representing a variety of people of all ages from 18 up, all backgrounds, occupations, and levels of education spread throughout all regions of Thailand.

The survey found opinion was very divided over who should be the next leader and what political party people favoured; 37% said they did not prefer any political party. About 21% of respondents picked candidates they thought would usher in a new generation of politics for Thailand, while about 24% leaned on experience and expertise. Other key factors mentioned were honesty, straightforwardness, leadership skills and vision.


If the election were today, who would you vote for as Prime Minister?

• 36.54% said no one was suitable for the post
• 16.39% – PM Prayut: decisive with good administrative skills and effective policies to help the people.
• 10.74% – Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party: from a new generation with good ideas for the country’s development.
• 10.55% – Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the Pheu Thai Party: a person of a new generation should be given the opportunity to take over the country’s administration.
• 05.51% – Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, leader of the Thai Sang Thai Party: experienced in the country’s administration.
• 04.83% – Pol Gen Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, leader of the Seri Ruam Thai Party: straightforward and hard-hitting.
• 02.36% – Korn Chatikavanij, leader of the Kla Party: vision and economic expertise.
• 02.24% – Cholnan Srikaew, leader of the Pheu Thai Party: capable with strong leadership skills.
• 01.84% – Jurin Laksanawisit, leader of the Democrat Party: honest and straightforward.
• 04.35% – no answer
• 04.11% – other potential candidates including:
  • Anutin Charnvirakul (Bhumjaithai Party)
  • Kanchana Silpa-archa (Chartthaipattana Party)
  • Mingkwan Saengsuwan (New Economics Party)
  • Chadchart Sittipunt
  • Gen Prawit Wongsuwon (Palang Pracharath Party)
  • Warong Dechgitvigrom (Thai Pakdi Party)
  • Wan Muhamad Nor Matha (Prachachart Party)
  • Abhisit Vejjajiva
  • Narongsak Osotthanakorn
  • Tewan Liptapanlop (Chart Pattana)
  • Suchatvee Suwansawat, Chuan Leekpai
  • Arthit Ourairat

Which political party do you prefer now?

• 37.14% none
• 23.52% Pheu Thai Party
• 13.18% Move Forward Party
• 08.99% Palang Pracharath Party
• 07.15% Democrat Party
• 02.43% Seri Ruam Thai Party
• 01.60% Thai Sang Thai Party
• 01.32% Bhumjaithai Party
• 01.08% Kla Party
• 01.56% no answer or not interested
• 02.03% other parties including:
  • Chartthaipattana
  • Thai Pakdi
  • New Economics
  • Chat Pattana
  • Prachachart
  • Pheu Chart

SOURCE: Bangkok Post

[Barfly]

Thai PM Prayut not worried about (un)popularity poll

Thailand’s prime minister ain’t that popular, but he doesn’t seem to mind because “the government is doing a good job”. That’s the gist of his response to a popularity poll indicating his favour among the Thai public is fading. After chairing Tuesday’s cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said…

“Even though the government has not yet achieved everything it set out to do, it has done a lot for the country. So the government should be given fair treatment.”

Prayut’s popularity has dropped significantly since last December, when he receive nearly 17% of the popularity pie. In the latest assessment, Prayut was outpolled 13.4% to 12.7% by 41 year old Pita Limjaroenrat, the youthful leader of the Move Forward Party (a political makeover from the defunct Future Forward Party, disbanded by the Constitutional Court in 2020).

Meanwhile, the largest percentage of Thais, 27.6%, said they were “yet to see anybody suitable for the post of Thai PM.”

This means that Pita is now the country’s most preferred candidate, followed by Prayut, then Paethongtan Shinawatra of the Pheu Thai Party (Thaksin Shinawatra’s youngest daughter), and then Khunying Sudarat, leader of the Thai Srang Thai Party (formerly leader of Pheu Thai).

The next candidates on the list represent a wide variety of political parties. 3.6% of respondents said they had no answers, or were not interested.

The poll was conducted over five days from March 10-15. Respondents were 2000 Thais from across the country 18 years old and above, with diverse jobs and levels of education.

Thailand’s ruling military-backed government forced the progressive Future Forward Party to dissolve in 2020. Former members of the party then formed the Move Forward Party. Thailand has seen unrest since the current government came to power in a coup in 2014. In the summer of 2020, a wave of protests movements began among Thailand’s university students, and eventually expanded into many parts of Thai society.

Thailand’s junta government, as well as institutions like universities, continue to silence dissent by accusing activists of violating censorship laws and “disrespecting Thai culture“, among other things.

[Tripadvisor]

NIDA poll puts Thailand’s opposition parties way ahead of the government

Thais have placed a candidate for the next Thai PM at the top of a recent poll. And that person hasn’t even declared they will run for the top job at this stage. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra, has scored the top position in the latest popularity poll conducted by NIDA poll.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra hasn’t even declared her hand to run as a prime ministerial candidate in the next election which is tipped to be called either later this year but certainly before March 2023. Whilst leading various committees in the Pheu Thai sphere, Paetongtarn has avoided the BIG question about her intention to run as the PM candidate on behalf of the party. Both her father (Thaksin) and her aunt (Yingluck) have served as prime ministers in Thailand. And in both cases they’ve been disposed of by military coups.

The NIDA survey, the second about prime ministerial candidates this year, was conducted last week among 2,500 people of various agers, occupations and education levels.

The first question was “who do you favour for Thailand’s next prime minister”?

• 25.3% of the respondents favoured the Pheu Thai leader of ‘Inclusion and Innovation Adviser Committees’, Paetongtarn Shinawatra. They noted they admired Pheu Thai’s policies and because she is from the Shinawatra family. Pheu Thai is the party representing a large body of Thaksin’s supporters, is based mostly in north and north eastern Thailand and also known as Red Shirts.
• Coming in second was NO ONE. 18.7%, noted that none of the names presented were suitable for the position of Thai prime minister.
• 13.2% favoured Pita Limjaroenrat, the current leader of the opposition Move Forward Party. The party is the latest reincarnation of the Future Forward Party which ran in third place during the 2019 general election only to run into challenges from the Palang Pracharat party and the constitutional court.
• 11.7% put their hand up for the incumbent PM Prayut Chan-o-cha. They said he was “an honest and straightforward person whose policies have proven effective”. They believed he had restored peace and order in the country.
• 6.8% Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, former leader of Pheu Thai and now the leader of the Thai Sang Thai Party. People said she had the necessary experience to run the country and liked that she was a woman.
• 6.6% voted for Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, leader of the Seri Ruam Thai Party and known as a ‘fixer’ in conservative Thai political circles and served as the Commissioner of the Royal Thai Police between February 2007 – April 2008 (during Thaksin Shinawatra’s prime ministership.
• 4.2% Chadchart Sittipunt, currently Bangkok’s governor and unlikely to put up his hand for the role. He ran in the Bangkok election as an independent candidate but was formerly allied to the Pheu Thai party. Also Korn Chatikavanij, leader of the Kla Party, Dr Cholnan Srikaew, the Pheu Thai Party leader, Somkid Jatusripitak, a former deputy PM and leading economic ‘fixer’ for various Thai governments.
• Then at the bottom two notable people, both polling below 2%.
• And with a mere 1.5% of the poll on his side, Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, current deputy PM and public health minister. As the guiding light through much of the government’s reaction to the Covid pandemic, he is broadly being blamed for the problems brought on by extensive lockdowns, keeping the borders closed and restricting businesses from re-opening earlier.
• Another 10 candidates in the poll had a combined a 2% of the vote.

In a related poll, respondents were asked to nominate the party they would vote for in the next election.

• 36.4% - Pheu Thai Party
• 17.9% - Move Forward Party
• --7.0% - Palang Pracharath Party
• --6.3% - Democrat Party
• --3.0% - Seri Ruam Thai Party
• --3.0% - Thai Sang Thai Party
• --2.8% - Kla Party
• --2.6% - Bhumjaithai Party

Just the top 2 parties in the poll puts the 2 main opposition parties (54.3%) way in front and ahead of the Palang Pracaharath party who leads the current coalition .

Both Anutin’s personal poll and that of his Bhumjaithai party would be an enormous concern for the conservative forces who saw the mercurial public health minister as a possible next PM. The Bhumjaithai Party spearheaded the move to decriminalise cannabis in Thailand and are now facing censure motions in the Thai parliament next month.

Then was a combined 2.5% for all the others parties in the poll… Sang Anakot Thai, Thai Pakdi, Chartthaipattana, Chart Pattana; Prachachart; New Economy; Ruam Thai Sang Chart; Thai Civilised and the Khru Thai Pheu Prachachon parties.

18.7%, said they did not support any particular party.

[Barfly]

‘A poll is just a poll’: Thailand’s PM Prayut unfazed by opposition’s popularity

Thailand will hold a general election at some point before March 2023, but polls reveal that current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is not the favourite to win. PM Prayut says he’s not worried about the poll results, because “a poll is just a poll.” Paetongtarn Shinawatra - daughter of ousted ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra and central figure of the Pheu Thai Party – recently came in at number 1 in a quarterly opinion poll taken by the National Institute of Development Administration, or NIDA, which is a university in Bangkok.

NIDA interviewed 2,500 adults of various occupations, income and education levels from all around Thailand. More than one quarter of them said Paetongtarn would be the best candidate in Thailand’s next general election. PM Prayut came in fourth place, with just 11.68% of people voting in favour of him. In another poll about political party preference, 36% of respondents voted for the Pheu Thai Party, which came in first place. The Move Forward party came in third place and in fourth place, came PM Prayut’s Palang Pracharat Party with just 7% of the vote.

“A poll is just a poll,” said PM Prayut, unfazed by the coalition’s sagging popularity. “I work and assess the achievement by myself. Whether people like my work is up to them. I serve everyone and conduct my duties without bias.”

Fugitive ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, on the other hand, predicts that “pro-democracy”, or opposition parties, will win the majority vote in the next general election. Thaksin said that whether the MP party list is calculated by dividing the votes by 100, as agreed by MPs, or by 500, as favoured by PM Prayut, that opposition parties will win the majority of seats either way…

“The incumbent government can continue to do what it wants to do in order to alter the possible outcome of the upcoming elections but one thing is for sure, that the pro-democracy parties are likely to win with an absolute majority.” “They can try whatever means they want but rest assured that the Democratic Front (pro-democracy parties) will get no less than 300 seats.”

Thaksin thinks PM Prayut’s move to alter the calculation system intends to leverage the smaller parties to create a more supportive base for a future coalition. Currently, the ruling Palang Pracharat-led coalition is made up of MPs from 17 different parties. Despite Thaksin’s daughter’s popularity among the public to be the next Prime Minister, junta-appointed senator Wanchai Sornsiri says it will never happen. On Facebook, Wanchai said that Paetongtarn had never been elected to public office and lacked the needed maturity for the job.

[Logan]

Over 93% do not want Thai PM to remain in office after 8 years – Survey

More than 93% of respondents say that they object to the prime minister remaining in office after eight years, according to an opinion survey, conducted via phone, by a group of lecturers from eight universities, in collaboration with eight digital TV stations and online media.

374,063 votes, including from 4,579 Thais living abroad, were received by the pollsters on August 20^th and 21^st, asking whether they agree with a prime minister remaining in office for more than eight years. There were 372,625 valid responses counted and the rest were invalid.

The survey shows 348,511 votes (93.17%) opposing the prime minister remaining in office after eight years, against 25,552 votes (6.83%) who said he should be able to stay on.

The pollsters pointed out, however, that the poll is not legally binding and it cannot be concluded that over 93% of the population in Thailand are against the prime minister remaining in office after the eight years.

Whether Prayut’s 8-year term comes to an end on August 24^th depends on the Constitutional Court’s ruling.

Pressure from opposition parties, activist groups and academics is building on the prime minister to resign before the August 24^th deadline when, according to his opponents, his term is due to end.

[Steve]

Super Poll: Most Thais welcome acting PM Prawit as the next PM

A Super Poll research centre survey has revealed that the majority of Thai people trust the judicial administration of Thailand and are willing to give a chance to caretaker Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan to serve as the kingdom’s next PM. Super Poll research centre director Noppadon Kannika yesterday announced the result of the survey titled Trust the Court, the Peaceful Country, which polled 1,156 participants between August 31 and September 3.

The research result was divided into three parts: people’s opinions toward Thai politics after the Constitutional Court agreed to consider Prayut Chan-o-cha’s PM term limits, people’s opinions toward Thai laws, courts, and judicial administration, and opinions on giving the acting prime minister a chance to become the PM on a full time basis. In the first section, 90.9% of respondents don’t want to see any more big protests because they affect the image of the country, investment, tourism, economy, society, and the upcoming APEC meeting.

Some 89.7% said they are bored with Thai politics because of the jostle for benefits, 88.4% want politicians to stop interfering with Thai judicial administration, 87.9% are worried about the cost of living that is affected by political conflict, and 87.3% don’t want a coup, saying it’s a vicious circle and ruins the country’s image on the international stage.

In the second section, regarding opinions toward Thai laws, courts, and judicial administration, 89% said they trusted the Thai judicial administration.

In the last section, about the acting prime minister becoming the next PM, 62.8% agree that caretaker PM Prawit should be the next PM. Those polled believe Prawit can create political and economic stability in Thailand.

Only 14.7% of the respondents don’t want Prawit as PM while 22.5% don’t have any opinions on the topic. Last year, the Super Poll research centre was questioned about the transparency and accuracy of its results after a survey concluded that Prawit Wongsuwan was the man of the year. In that poll, people were positive toward government politicians and negative against opposition parties.

[Topgun]

POLL: Northern Thais favour Sudarat for Prime Minister

A recent poll in the north of Thailand showed Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan leading the polls so far after announcing her candidacy for Prime Minister this week. She lead with 23.4% of the votes by those polled, followed by the daughter of a former prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The survey was conducted by E-Saan Centre for Business and Economic Research of Khon Kaen University and interviewed 1,065 adults over the age of 18 throughout 20 Northeastern provinces. The goal was to interview people in the north and northeast of Thailand to get a feel for their general political positions and opinions on the current state of Thailand’s politics and economy, and of course, who should be prime minister.

The E-Saan Poll conducted the survey in order to then forward important findings in the results to political parties and state agencies in an attempt to allow the voices of those Thais in the north of the country to be heard.
Among other questions, they asked about the prime minister election race that is beginning to head up with several candidates now emerging. They also gauged respondents’ feelings about the current leading political parties as well as how they’ve been affected by the pandemic-weakened economy. Some key results:

Who would you vote for as Prime Minister?

• 23.4% – Khunying Sudarat, Thai Sang Thai Party
• 21.1% – Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Pheu Thai Party
• 20.2% – Pita Limjaroenrat, Move Forward Party
• 12.5% – Prayut Chan-o-cha, suspended Prime Minister
• 9.9% – Minister of Public Health Anutin Charnvirakul, Bhumjaithai Party

What party would you vote for to solve economic problems?

• 35.9% – Pheu Thai Party
• 19.8% – Move Forward Party
• 14.7% – Thai Sang Thai Party
• 12.6% – Palang Pracharath
• 10.7% – Bhumjaithai Party
• 3.1% – Democrat Party
• 1.9% – Seri Ruam Thai
• 1.4% – other parties

What economic issues cause you stress? (More than one answer allowed)

• 62.4% – the rising cost of living and raw materials
• 56.9% – high energy prices
• 42.5% – falling income, struggling to make ends meet
• 37.1% – failure to pay monthly loan payments
• 33.8% – unemployment
• 32.2% – farming and agricultural losses
• 31.9% – shortage of money or loans and other issues

[Barfly]

POLL: Top 2 picks for prime minister are “nobody” and Ex-PM’s daughter

A new NIDA poll shows the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin is leading the pack of hopefuls to replace suspended PM Prayut Chan-o-cha. Paetongtarn “Ung Ing” Shinawatra is a member of the leading Pheu Thai Party and is currently the second choice for prime minister, just behind “nobody is suitable“. The poll was conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration between September 15 and 21 over the phone. A total of 2,500 adults over the age of 18 were surveyed, from around the country and of various occupations, incomes, and levels of education. Results of the poll, the popular choices – and why – are detailed below:

Who would be your choice today for prime minister?

• 24.16% – nobody is suitable for the post
• 21.60% – Paetongtarn Shinawatra, head of the Pheu Thai family
• 10.56% – Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party
• 10.12% – Prayut Chan-ocha
• ..9.12% – Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, leader of the Thai Sang Thai Party
• ..6.28% – Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, leader of the Seri Ruam Thai Party
• ..2.40% – Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party
• ..2.20% – Cholnan Srikaew, leader of the Pheu Thai Party
• ..2.16% – Chadchart Sittipunt, the current Bangkok governor
• ..2.12% – Korn Chatikavanij of the Chat Pattana Party
• ..1.92% – Somkid Jatisripitak of the Sang Anakhot Thai Party
• ..1.68% – Jurin Laksanawisit, leader of the Democrat Party
• ..3.12% – combined for Gen Prawit Wongsuwon (Palang Pracharath Party), Dr Warong Dechgitvigrom (Thai Pakdi Party), Kanchana Silpa-archa (Chartthaipattana Party), Mingkwan Saengsuwan (New Economics Party), Wan Muhamad Noor Matha (Prachachart Party), Mongkolkit Suksintaranond (Thai Civilised Party), Abhisit Vejjajiva (Democrat Party), Pirapan Salirathavibhaga (Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party), Tewan Liptapanlop (Chart Pattana Party), Chuan Leekpak (Democrat Party), Suchatvee Suwansawat (Democrat Party), Sirasit Lertduaylarp (Pheu Thai Party) and Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn (Move Forward Party)
• ..2.56% – no answer or were not interested

Why?

Respondents were also asked their reasoning for their choices with the most popular reason for each listed in the poll results. Paetongtarn was chosen often for Pheu Thai Party loyalists and fans of the ex-prime minister, and to bring a new generation into politics. Pita was liked for the Move Forward Party’s policies and his ideology. Prayut got support by those who believed his reign so far was peaceful and benefitted Thai citizens and consider him honest and direct. Khunying supporters favoured a woman in the top political post and respected her experience and achievements. Sereepisuth garnered support from people saying he is respectable, honest, and direct. Deputy Prime Minister Anutin is revered for his achievements and the Bhumjaithai Party’s policies. Cholnan was considered very responsible while Bangkok Governor Chadchart is viewed as determined and capable, working hard for the people. Finally, Korn and Somkid were both desired for their economic prowess, and Jurin was liked for his previous achievements and the Democrat Party’s policies.

What is your political party now?

• 34.44% – Pheu Thai Party
• 24.00% – none
• 13.56% – Move Forward Party
• ..7.56% – Democrat Party
• ..5.56% – Palang Pracharath Party
• ..3.04% – Thai Sang Thai Party
• ..2.56% – Seri Ruam Thai Party
• ..2.32% – Bhumjaithai Party
• ..1.00% – Chart Pattana Party
• ..3.52% – combined for Sang Anakhot Thai, Kla, Chartthaipattana, Thai Pakdi, Ruam Thai Sang Chart, New Economics, Pheu Chart, Setthakij Thai, Prachachart, Action Coalition for Thailand and Thai Civilised parties.
• ..2.44% – no answer or were not interested.