Myanmar Economy - 18%

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Myanmar’s economy decreased by 18% after the Military Coup


The civil unrest following the February military coup, paired with the a spike in Covid-19 infections, is expected to cause Myanmar’s economy to contract by 18% this year, according to the World Bank. Since the military takeover, ousting the country’s elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi of the National League for Democracy, it’s estimated that more than 900 people have been killed by security forces, according to a local monitoring group. Some were shot and killed while protesting. Some were children at home when troops open fire in their neighbourhoods.

The military have tried to justify the coup, claiming the takeover was needed due to election fraud. Aung San had won in a landslide. Prominent ethnic armies and rebel fighters have openly opposed the coup, leading to violent clashes, some near the Thai border.

The political unrest lead many banks to shut down and authorities were not able to issue bills or collect taxes, freezing the country’s economy. Shutdowns, strikes and internet blackouts following the coup have also impacted the economy.

The economy has already been battered by the coronavirus this year. World Bank says that now Myanmar’s economy is expected to shrink by 18% in the fiscal year, which ends in September. The contraction would make the economy “around 30% smaller than it would have been in the absence of Covid-19 and the military takeover,” World Bank says. The lender says the Myanmar kyat has depreciated by around 23% against the US dollar.

The poverty rate is expected to double by the beginning of 2022 when compared to the 2019 rate before Covid-19.

Myanmar attracted foreign investors after 2011 during a period of democratic reforms and economic liberalisation. But since the coup and bloodily crackdown, many foreign investors have either suspended operations or pulled out completely, including the Norwegian telecoms giant Telenor. The company said it is selling its Myanmar subsidiary, a leading operator in the country, with 18 million mobile phone customers.

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The UN says more than 3 million people in Myanmar need life-saving aid

The UN is urging Myanmar’s military leaders to allow unimpeded access to more than 3 million people who need life-saving aid. Martin Griffiths, the UN humanitarian chief, says since the February 1 coup, the numbers of those at-risk of losing their lives will only rise. The ongoing violence has not showed signs of slowing, and Griffiths says if a peaceful resolution doesn’t materialise, then more bloodshed will occur.

A UN appeal has only seen less than half of the US$385 million raised with Griffiths urging donors to respond. Last Monday marked the 1st anniversary of the 2020 democratic elections in Myanmar, which were deemed “free and fair” by domestic and international observers. However, Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy was ousted in a coupafter winning the elections, which saw the party gaining around 80% of the elected seats in the upper and lower houses of parliaments. Suu Kyi, a Nobel laureate and other NLD leaders were arrested as the military generals cited alleged evidence in their reasons for staging a coup. The military rejected the election results and claimed the vote was fraudulent.

The Army said they would take control for 12 months under emergency powers granted to them in the country’s constitution, which was cobbled together by the generals to ensure they never lost control of the country. 1 year later, the junta is still in control and the situation is worsening.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric, says the UN is “gravely concerned about the intensifying violence in Myanmar” and again urges unimpeded humanitarian access. Recently, the UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on Myanmar at Britan’s request as the similarities between the situation now are mirroring those that happened 4 years ago when crimes against humanity were evident against Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslim minority.

Since Suu Kyi’s ousting, Myanmar has seen peaceful demonstrations against the junta evolving into low-level insurgency in many urban areas after security forces used deadly force against the protesters. And, on September 7, the National Unity Government, which was created by elected legislators who were barred from taking their seats after the coup, has called for a nationwide uprising.

That call, has sparked fears of an all-out civil war, with an UN special envoy echoing those fears. Now, reports of soldiers conducting “clearing operations” in Chin state are reminiscent of the 2017 “clearing operations” that saw widespread rapes, villages burned down, and 700,000 Rohingya Muslims fleeing to neighbouring Bangladesh.